“Thinking in Bets” by Duke

"Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts" by Annie Duke explores how we make decisions and how we can improve our decision-making skills. Drawing on her experience as a professional poker player, Duke argues that product managers can learn a lot from the world of gambling and apply those lessons to our decisions at work.

The central thesis of the book is that we should think of decisions as bets, and that we should be mindful of the uncertainty and probability involved in every decision we make. Duke argues that we can improve our decision-making skills by understanding how to weigh the probabilities and by learning to separate the quality of our decisions from the outcomes they produce.

The book is split up into six chapters. Duke first discusses the challenges of decision-making and the concept of thinking in bets. She argues that we often think of decisions as black and white, when in reality they involve a degree of uncertainty and probability. She provides examples of how understanding probability can help us make better decisions, and discusses the importance of separating the quality of our decisions from the outcomes they produce.

Duke also dives into the challenges of decision-making in complex and uncertain environments. She provides examples of how the world of gambling can provide insights into decision-making in fields such as politics, business, and sports. She discusses the importance of gathering diverse perspectives, avoiding cognitive biases, and embracing uncertainty in decision-making.

One of the key themes of the book is the importance of embracing uncertainty and taking risks. Duke argues that successful decision-making involves a degree of uncertainty, and that we should be willing to take risks and make bets in order to achieve our goals. She provides examples of successful entrepreneurs, athletes, and politicians who have embraced uncertainty and taken calculated risks to achieve their goals.

Another important theme is the importance of learning from our mistakes. Duke argues that we should view mistakes as opportunities for learning, and that we should be willing to revise our beliefs and strategies based on new information. She provides examples of successful poker players who have learned from their mistakes and improved their decision-making skills as a result.

"Thinking in Bets" is a thought-provoking book filled with practical advice and insights that are applicable to product management. Product managers looking to improve their ability to decide in uncertain situations can benefit from Duke’s writing.